An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad. DESIGN: Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources. METHODS: An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK. Data on number of new HIV diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used. RESULTS: An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV were undiagnosed respectively. CONCLUSION: We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK, there is still a substantial number of people who are not yet diagnosed and thus not in care

Update on HIV in Western Europe

HIV infection in Western Europe is mainly concentrated among men who have sex with men, heterosexuals who acquired HIV from sub-Saharan African countries, and in people who inject drugs. The rate of newly diagnosed cases of HIV has remained roughly stable since 2004 whereas the number of people living with HIV has slowly increased due to new infections and the success of antiretroviral therapy in prolonging life. An ageing population is gradually emerging that will require additional care. There are large differences across countries in HIV testing rates, proportions of people who present to care with low CD4+ cell counts, accessibility to treatment and care, and rates of retention once in care. Improved collection of HIV surveillance data will benefit countries and help to understand their epidemic better. However, social inequalities experienced by people with HIV still remain in some regions and urgently need to be addressed

Impact of HIV drug resistance on HIV/AIDS associated mortality, new infections and antiretroviral therapy program costs in sub-Saharan Africa

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV-incidence and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pre-treatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890,000 deaths) , 9% of new infections (450,000) and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies. METHODS: We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands. RESULTS: The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data

Cognitive dysfunction and amyloid β accumulation are ameliorated by the ingestion of green soybean extract in aged mice

AbstractThe effects of soybean extracts were investigated in senescence-accelerated (SAMP10) mice, a mouse model of brain senescence with cognitive dysfunction. Mature soybeans are usually yellow. However, the green soybean retains green color after being ripened. Cognitive functions were significantly better-preserved in aged mice fed green soybean than age-matched control mice with or without yellow soybean feeding. Molecular mechanisms of the beneficial effect of green soybean on brain functions were examined through transcriptome analysis of SAMP10 hippocampus. The high expression of Ptgds was significantly associated with green soybean diet, which encodes lipocalin-type prostaglandin D2 synthase, a putative endogenous amyloid β(Αβ)-chaperone. In consonance, Aplp1 expression was significantly reduced, a member of amyloid precursor proteins. Furthermore, the amount of Aβ 40 and 42 was reduced in the insoluble fraction of cerebral cortex. These results suggest that the intake of green soybean ameliorates cognitive dysfunction of aged mice through the reduction of Aβ accumulation

Identifying key drivers of the impact of an HIV cure intervention in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND:  The properties required of an intervention that results in eradication or control of HIV in absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART-free viral suppression) to make it cost-effective in low income settings are unknown. METHODS:  We used a model of HIV and ART to investigate the effect of introducing an ART-free viral suppression intervention in 2022 in an example country of Zimbabwe. We assumed that the intervention (cost: $500) would be accessible for 90$300 million (8.7% saving). An intervention of this efficacy costing anything up to $1400 is likely to be cost-effective in this setting. CONCLUSION:  Interventions aimed at curing HIV have the potential to improve overall disease burden and to reduce costs. Given the effectiveness and cost of ART, such interventions would have to be inexpensive and highly effective

Cognitive behavior therapy for autistic adolescents, awareness and care for my autistic traits program: a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Autistic people demonstrate focused interests, sensitivity to sensory stimulation, and, compared with the general population, differences in social communication and interaction. We examined whether a combination of the Awareness and Care for My Autistic Traits (ACAT) program and treatment-as-usual is more effective than only treatment-as-usual in increasing the understanding of autistic attributes, reducing treatment stigma, and improving mental health and social adaptation among autistic adolescents and their parents/guardians. METHODS: Forty-nine adolescents and their parents/guardians were randomly assigned to either a combination of ACAT and treatment-as-usual or only treatment-as-usual. The combined group received six weekly 100-minute ACAT sessions, while the treatment-as-usual group received no additional intervention. The primary outcome was the change in understanding of autistic attributes (Autism Knowledge Quiz-Child), administered from pre- to post-intervention. The secondary outcomes included the change in Autism Knowledge Quiz-Parent, reduced treatment stigma, and improved mental health and social adaptation among autistic adolescents and their parents/guardians. A primary outcome measure scale was scored by assessors who were blind to the group assignment. RESULTS: The combined group (both autistic adolescents and their parents/guardians) showed an increase in Autism Knowledge Quiz scores compared to those in the treatment-as-usual group. Autistic adolescents in the combined group also demonstrated a decrease in treatment-related stigma and an improvement in general mental health compared to those in the treatment-as-usual group, while there were no group differences in the change in social adaptation. For parents/guardians, there were no group differences in the change in treatment-related stigma, general mental health, adaptive skills, or attitudes toward their children. CONCLUSIONS: The ACAT program could be an effective treatment modality to increase the understanding of autistic attributes among both autistic adolescents and their parents/guardians. The ACAT program positively affects self-understanding, reduces treatment stigma, and stabilizes behavioral issues for autistic adolescents as a part of mental health measures, but it does not effectively reduce treatment barriers or improve mental health for parents/guardians. Further research should consider whether additional support for parents/guardians could be beneficial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered in UMIN (UMIN000029851, 06/01/2018)

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of condomless-sex-concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal accounting for drug resistance

INTRODUCTION: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation. METHODS: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (i) PrEP availability for adolescent-girls-and-young-women (aged 15-24; AGYW) and female sex workers (FSW), and (ii) availability for everyone aged 15-64. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programmes. RESULTS: In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence, and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24. PrEP was cost effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective